A Big Ten Battle… on a Friday Night?:-
We got ourselves a dangerous Big 10 matchup. We got the Minnesota Golden Ghers heading out to the Oregon Ducks in Auton Stadium, not on a Saturday, but on a Friday night. And if you are an Oregon fan, this is the exact game that should give you a little bit of pause and scare you a little bit.
Betting Lines Hint at a Low-Scoring Oregon Win:-
Big 10 did not do the West Coast teams any favors with these scheduled because you’ve already had Washington, USC, and Oregon all had away games before hosting a Friday night game against a team coming off a buy. You had USC, they went to Nebraska and then had to host Northwestern. And then Oregon just went to Iowa, played a very physical game, and they’re at home against Minnesota this week. But no excuses. Nobody cares about your problems. Only winning football games matters.
Where These Teams Stand:-
Oregon is a 21 a 12 point favorite at the time of this recording. The overunder is 46 a half. So, the market is saying the Ducks win big in what could be a lowscoring affair overall. Now, the records in this game, Oregon is eight- one, 5- one in the Big 10, and it doesn’t look like unless Ohio State loses to Michigan and then there’s some tie records involved that there’s a way for any other teams besides Ohio State and Indiana to end up in the Big 10 Championship. Now, for Minnesota, they’re sitting at six and three. They are feeling good. They got a good head coach in PJ Fleck and he has elevated the floor of this program. Now that no, they’re not going to the college football playoff, but they are a formidable team and they are not ranked right now, but this does not mean that they are not a dangerous team. We always talk about head coach versus head coach. First one I mentioned was PJ Fleck, who is in his ninth year at Minnesota.
Coaching Matchup: Culture vs. Culture:-
He’s a culture builder. multiple bowl wins in in a row. He is continually leveling up the talent of this football team. Now, they are 0 and3 on the road this season and that is a concern, but he has definitely elevated the floor of this program and the expectations and UCLA was trying to get him and he said no. So, Minnesota fans, you have a coach that wants to be there. Elite recruiter, culture builder. Peep this about his culture. Oregon has played in bad weather at Iowa and then um at home against Wisconsin. Terrible weather.
QB Breakdown: Drake Lindsay vs. Dante Moore:-
He is talented and the future is extremely bright.Trying to put Minnesota fans on alarm, but he’s the exact type of kid that players are going to be trying well the teams are going to be trying to get to hop in the transfer portal after this season. Drake Lindsay, 1700 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, six interceptions, 62% on the season, and he is a breakout Big 10 freshman. You cannot deny what this kid is doing. And sometimes people get way too caught up in stats. The kid has already thrown for over 300 yards versus Rutgers and then scored the game-winning touchdown against Michigan State. Now on the Dante Moore side for Oregon, he’s their quarterback. Over 70% completions, 19 touchdowns, five interceptions, over 1,800 yards passing. Now, his last two games have not been gaudy stats at all. We’re talking like 200 total yards, but in the Wisconsin game, he obviously got got hurt, missed basically a half a football. And then against Iowa, the weather was sideways and everything.
Minnesota Offense vs. Oregon Defense:-
When you watch this film, this is an NFL kid. He is accurate. He is pretty much he makes good decisions. Yes, he had a bad game against Indiana, but you can’t find a lot of bad on film on on him. There is accuracy, there is poise, and then he just led the game-winning drive in Kick Stadium against Iowa. Now, let’s look at this Minnesota offense versus the Oregon defense. This is the area that Minnesota has to be at their best in this game. They’re going to have to find a way to get some explosives. They’re going to have to find a way to protect the football and protect Drake Lindsay and run the football because this is the area that they have been struggling in this year. It is not that PJ’s flex defense has all of a sudden fallen off a cliff because that’s not the case. It’s the offense that has been poor. They are only passing the ball for 203 yards per game which is about 95th in the country. only 110 rushing yards per game which puts them at 123rd and then 23.8 points per game which puts them at about 98th. Now their best weapon Brockington on the wide receiver end there is potential there but the offensive line has to give Drake Lindseay time.
Minnesota’s Defense: Scrappy & Smart:-
They have to because he can win on the outside on some level even though you’re going against one of the better defenses in the entire country. And then you got Fame at running back. He’s been the lead back since Darius Taylor has been slowed down a bit and he’s been limited. But it’s the O line pressures that have to get fixed. Now, against this Oregon defense, one of the things that teams have been doing to have success is getting the ball out quickly because if you drop back pass Matteo UAL, Tatum Tuiote, Omari Washington and company and Bear Alexander, they are going to have a field day getting to the quarterback. So, what Indiana did, what Wisconsin did, what Iowa did is if you’re going to drop back pass, it must be max protect, and if you are going to just pass the ball in general, you have to be three-step, get the ball out extremely quick screens. And this is why you see Matteo UAL sack total down this year.
X-Factors That Could Swing the Game:-
But this is a defense that’s only allowing 13.8 points per game, which is number six in the country., number three in the country in yards per game allowed and number one in pass defense. So, this is going to be a very tall task. But the weakest part, if we’re being honest about this Oregon team, has been their linebacker crew. That is and and it’s funny because when you say the word weaker, right, when you compare it to the rest of the c country, they’re pretty good. But when you look at what how great the secondary has been number one in the nation. But then also what the Dline is doing in terms of stopping the run and then when they are drop back passing getting pressure that’s the one area that you’re like oh it could be a bit bit better. But you do have to give credit to Bryce Ber in the pass game and Jerry Mixon as well. And you have seen some of the other kids that have that have come in in middle linebacker. So that’s where the game will be decided is explosive plays and turnovers. And Minnesota has to figure out a way to generate some of those. And it starts with running the football because if you can run the football, your play action is going to work better and then you’re going to have an opportunity to hit some big shots, tidying screens, and most importantly, stay out of third and long. Oregon will win this football game if you stay in third and third and long.
Prediction: Weird Setup, But Oregon Handles Business:-
At Oregon’s offense versus the Golden Gophers defense. Now, this offense, their points per game average has been going down steadily because you get in Big 10 play and the weather has been poor the last couple of games. So, they’ve scored 21 and 18. So, they were averaging well over 40 points and now that’s down to 38.9. But, it is still a top 10 scoring offense and top 10 rushing offense at over 240 yards per game while still averaging 232 passing yards per game. It is the balance that creates a headache for a lot of players. And Oregon did go in and beat Iowa without their and truthfully this is going to be their biggest question is going to be health. Kenyan Sadique potential first round tight end missed the game. so did the right tackle Harky and Dorian Moore standout freshman true freshman wide receiver out and they lost the USC transfer wide receiver Gary Bryant as well. So Oregon is down right now in the wide receiver crew and in the passcatching crew. So this is an opportunity for Minnesota’s defense to be able to pounce depending on health because you can’t imagine that you miss a game one week and then the next week all of a sudden you know everybody is magically 100% healthy because even if they were 80 90%. They might have seen some time in that Iowa game. Now Minnesota’s defense they are only allowing 21.6 6 points per game.
Iowa game Perfomance:-
And when your offense is not playing well and your defense is putting up numbers like like that, you are in good shape. And some of that is skewed as well from like the Iowa game where Iowa scored on defense and on on special teams, but this is still points per game. And then you got to look at Devon Williams 70 tackles. The kid is everywhere. John Nester, kid has three interceptions. They do have playmakers on this defense. This is a scrappy defense. They are well coached, but the issue has been they’ve been put in a lot of tough spots. So, there has been a little bit of leakage. And the question is, are they going to be able to stop Oregon from running the football because if Minnesota can slow down Oregon’s running game, they will have a chance to have success and win this football game. And then also knock the ball out.Oregon hasn’t allowed any punt returns all year, but maybe a kick return for a touchdown, block kick. You’re gonna have to find some edges that aren’t just straight up trick play something. That’s what Minnesota has to do. And if you’re Oregon, no explosives and find an edge in special teams because , M Minnesota’s special teams has had a little bit of trouble particularly in that Iowa game.You got Minnesota who plays at W at Northwestern and then they play Wisconsin and they’re going to the postseason. So that’s already set. And then for us for Oregon you got USC at home and then you’re playing at Washington to close out the season trying to go 11 and one.