Rivalry Renewed Under the Lights:-
This is the Florida Gator on the fourthranked Miami Hurricanes. Miami right now about a seven and a half point favorite. This game will be 7:30 Eastern time on ABC.
The Tale of Two Programs:-
One side of it, you have a top five Miami team that’s just the model of efficiency trying to solidify their status as a legitimate national championship contender. And on the other side, you have a battered, belleaguered, battle tested Florida squad that’s desperate to try to get things back on track. And a signature victory against their arch rival who happens to be in the top four could be huge in revitalizing a team that’s got a lot of negativity surrounding it. Look, Billy Napier’s in his fourth year. They kind of limp in a Hard Rock Stadium with a one and two record.They came up short against LSU. They got to get things going in the right direction, but it’s not the defense that’s the problem. t’s the offense that has been challenged here these last couple weeks. On the other side, it’s Miami 3 and 0. Resume is tremendous with a season opening win against Notre Dame and then a complete demolition of the 18th ranked South Florida Bulls. fourth year head coach Mario Crystalall, OC Shannon Dawson, DC Cory Heatherman. Really good staff, think, for the Miami Hurricanes on both sides of the ball.
Florida’s Struggles So Far:-
The quarterback matchup is a fascinating one. DJ Lagway, he has been really good at times in his career. We know he was a five-star recruit. However, there have been really high highs and really low lows. He’s got six picks already this year. Anytime you have five touchdowns against six picks, it’s not what you want naturally, especially when t taking on a top five opponent. And we understand that the preeason was hampered by the calf injury. Cost him three or four weeks in preeason camp. Probably affected his timing, affected his rhythm, affected his confidence, but he also missed spring. It’s a guy that’s kind of just been rusty here and hasn’t played a ton of football in the last eight months. So, it’s going to be absolutely imperative that he shows up, plays well, and makes great decisions because this offense cannot have another multi-turn performance from their quarterback and live to tell the tale. Miami’s Carson Beck on the other side, what a story. Decorated career at Georgia, he’s been so poised. He’s been so precise. He looks like a seasoned pro out there. He’s played a lot of football.
Miami’s Rise and Efficiency:-
But statistically speaking, nobody is playing more efficiently than Carson Beck. 78% of his passes have been completed. He’s got seven to two touchdown interception ratio. The passer has been off the charts. He can diagnose things pre- snap. He can deliver the ball accurately on the underneath, but he’s also hitting things downfield. The guy’s got a career record of 27 and three, including the three wins that he has at Miami. So, he’s won a lot of games as a quarterback at the college level. Question one, can Miami’s offensive line continue their dominance? The foundation of Miami’s offensive success is along their offensive line. Probably the best offensive line in the country, anchored by guys that are going to be playing a long time in the NFL, including their right tackle, Francis Maui Noah. Now, their performance in the first three weeks has been amazing. They’ve allowed just two sacks at the first three games. They’ve seen some good pass rushes, too, by the way. And they’ve given Carson Beck a really clean pocket to operate from. Now, one of those two picks that Carson Beck threw was against pressure against USF where he had to slide in the pocket and threw a not a throw that you’d like for him to make under duress and it was picked off.
Key Matchup: Miami OL vs. Florida DL:-
The exceptional pass protection though has been the direct reason why Beck has been as efficient as he was and the offense has avoided all those negative plays that have plagued them in the past. This line doesn’t just excel in pass blocking, their incredible run of the football as well. They’re averaging 174 yards a game on the ground. They have a two-headed monster at running back in Mark Fletcher who is the leading back, but Marty Brown, Chamar Brown, he’s also ex outstanding, but don’t forget about Jordan Ly, a little banged up in the opener against Notre Dame, but don’t forget about him. He’s got major juice. So, when he gets back and when he’s healthy, he can provide even more depth to an outstanding running back room. Now, Gator’s defensive line is really good.
Can Florida Run the Ball?:-
They are a little skewed because of the performance against Long sland in week one when they gave up just 37 rushing yards. But a big storyline in this game is that their defensive tackle, their star defensive tackle, Caleb Banks, sounds like at this point he’s not going to be available. That’s a huge blow to their depth and their ability to control the line of scrimmage against an elite offensive line. Question two, can the Gator run the football? Now, you look at the numbers, they’re not bad. over 165 yards a game and their success in this matchup is going to be absolutely imperative on them creating opportunities in the rung game. Look, the centerpiece of their offense. know DJ Lagway gets all the headlines, but Jaden Ba is probably their best player.
Explosive Plays Are a Must:-
Almost 250 this season, 37 carries, 6 and a half per attempt.He’s got to break tackles, man. He’s so good after contact. He always seems to be falling forward. So if Florida can successfully run the football, they can kind of accomplish pretty much everything they need to do at once. They can control the time of possession, which is a statistical strength for them. They control the ball and possess the ball over 30 four minutes of the game so far. That’ll keep Carson Beck on the sideline and that’ll keep this offense on schedule and it will set up opportunities off play action for DJ Lagwe. Miami’s defense, new defensive coordinator Cory Heatherman. They are built to stop what Florida does best. They’re one of the best country best in the country at at stopping the run. n the first two games, they allowed just three yards per carry. To the three games, they’ve actually gotten better. 2.4 yards per carry. And that includes a game against Jeremiah Love, who is one of the best backs in college football.
Turnover Margin Could Decide It:-
So, we know Miami has tremendous talent, tremendous size, and a scheme that will make it very hard on Florida and their offensive line to attack the point. But think Florida is going to have to be creative because don’t think they can be onedimensional like they were last week and live to tell the tale. Question three, will Florida be able to create explosive plays? We haven’t seen enough of this from Florida, but the mantra of their team and their offense’s identity is pound the rock, hit passes over the top. And so far, DJ Lagway has not been good on the downfield throws. But last year, if you want to reverse back to 2024, on throws that traveled 20 or more yards downfield, he was 18 of 35. That’s 51% completion on throws that traveled 20 plus.
Flag Fest? Penalties Could Doom Gators:-
Now, three games in, Miami’s been clean.They have a turnover margin of plus two. They have four takeaways and did have a couple turnovers last week against USF, but there’s been a commitment to ball security and they’ve been very opportunistic on the defensive side. Now, on the other side, Florida is minus five in turnover margin. Everyone can point to last week’s game and DJ Lagway struggles to throw it to the guy wearing the right jersey, but they need to be better. All six of Florida’s turnovers have been interceptions and the turnover margin think is going to be impossible for Florida to overcome. So if Lagway has a clean sheet, they should be in great shape. f he throws picks, it’s going to be tough sledding for the Florida Gator. And then question five, will penalties continue to plague Florida? Three touchdowns this season have been wiped out by penalties. That’s two against USF, then a 95 yard catch and run or 90 plus yard catch and run to Jaden Ba that was wiped out by a holding call. We’ve seen holds, we’ve seen false starts, we’ve seen offensive pass interference, even though the offensive pass interference against South Florida, didn’t agree with.
Red Zone and Third Down Battle:-
Shouldn’t have been OP in opinion, but it was what it was. They have to stop having those holding calls that get them behind the sticks because if they continue to have those holding calls, if they continue to have false starts, it’s going to be very difficult for Florida to stay on schedule in a ground and pound style of attack. Question six, will this game come down to third down in red zone? Now, the Hurricanes have been really efficient on third down. They’re converting over 50%. That’s top 25. t allows them to kind of control the clock, wear people down. Florida has not been as good on third down. They’re converting just over 40%. t’s not terrible, but it’s a pretty significant step below from what we’ve seen in Miami. But the difference is even more significant when you look at the red zone. Finishing drives has to be the highest priority for the Florida Gator.
Trends and Betting Notes:-
They’ve been pretty effective on getting points. They’ve scored quite a bit, but they’ve struggled to push it into the end zone. They’ve settled for field goals. That was their ultimate this undoing against USF, settling for field goals as opposed to scoring touchdowns. They’re 54th right now in touchdown efficiency in the red zone. Miami, on the other side, really, really good. They score touchdowns on nearly 80% of their red zone possessions. So, that’ll be big in this game as well. Florida, the under has hit in seven straight games. t’s the longest active streak in the FBS. And Miami is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 meetings against Florida. Think they’re going to absolutely roll.
Final Score Prediction: Miami 31, Florida 17:-
But do think they cover. Think Miami is really licking their chops in this opportunity. Think their defense has been retoled. And the absence of Caleb Banks along the defensive line for the Gator will be felt significantly against this offensive line that can pound you in so many ways.