Awesome start to the Sunday night football season. It’s the best game of the night. If you don’t watch NFL or know uh anything about DFS sports or that kind of thing, that is really high and really good. And we have a spread of only one and a half points. So basically the fat cats in Vegas, the filthy dogs that draft kings and all those people that try to take our money, they’re saying that this is going to be or should be a highscoring game and the game should be very close.We have two of the best quarterbacks in football going head-to-head.
Lamar vs. Allen: Elite QB Duel with History:-
We have Josh Allen who is one and three against Lamar Jackson in the regular season, but he is two and 0 against him in the playoffs. And obviously, you just reverse that for Lamar Jackson, 3-1 regular season, 0 and2 in the playoffs.
It is a home game for Josh Allen. They’re going to be at Orchard Park in Buffalo. And thank goodness it is early on in the year, so we don’t have to worry about snow and freezing temperatures. Probably be in the 50s around game time dropping to the 40s, but nothing weather related that we have to worry about.
Week 1 DFS Vibes: Chill, Don’t Tilt:-
So, at this point, we’ve had Thursday night football, we’ve had Friday night football. At this point, you’re you know whether you had a pretty good day or an amazing day as far as the main slate and maybe you even played a few showdown contests on Sunday so far. So, right now, you’re probably feeling one of three ways. This is 1970. But hopefully whether you’ve had a great start or a not so great start right now, you’re chill. you haven’t overextended yourself as far as expending all of your your money in your bank account. You’re not taking out, you know, home equity loans and home equity lines of credit. Hopefully, you’re in a chill place right now. Like, you know what? This is week one of a million weeks because, you know, you got the what is what is it? 19 weeks plus the playoffs.
What Happened Thursday & Friday: Early Difference Makers:-
It’s a lot of weeks of over 20 weeks of football left. So, what’sever happened in this very, very early part of the season, you should be in chill mode today.Aware that we have a different, you know, kind of audience today than we’ll have maybe week six or 10. There’s some people who have never played DFS or have barely played DFS out there. And you know, you got to be patient with somebody when they first learn how to play spades because you want them eventually to do a lot better and be someone that you can make your partner in space. That’s how it is in DFS. So, first thing you got to know is I’m going to give you two thought process lineups. And so my thought process, once again, do what you want to do. This is just my thought process. Hopefully my thought process along with your thought process and whatever tools and things you’re using will give you the best opportunity to win that gu. So before we jump into Sunday, we got to start and think about what happened on Thursday and Friday.
Why Value Matters: It’s Not Just Points—It’s Points per Dollar:-
Everybody knows that Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry, uh, and James Cook and Zay Flowers, everybody knows that they’re really good. You don’t need me to tell you that. But there is an obscure player or relatively obscure player out there and that is going to be the difference maker. They’re the third or fourth wide receiver for the Eagles and Dawson ended up being the difference maker. He was owned around 5%. He had three receptions for think 59 yards. So he didn’t he didn’t have an amazing day. But as you know that when it comes to fantasy football, you’re trying you’re looking at multipliers. So you’re looking at the salary uh times production. So for someone that’s 3200, you only need them to get what 6.4 fantasy points, maybe seven fantasy points to actually return value as opposed to someone like Josh Allen, you’re going to need Josh Allen to get at least 22 fantasy points to to actually be worth your while. Otherwise, if Josh Allen gets less than 22 fantasy points, even if he gets 18 fantasy points, that might look good on paper, but it’s actually hurting your lineup. So, Dodson was the difference maker for Thursday Night Football. And then Friday, we were in Brazil.
We know that uh one of the higher owned players, Xavier Worthy, was injured on the third play of the game, which meant Hollywood Brown was featured more than more than planned. Definitely Quinton Johnston uh for the Chargers was the difference maker. All the attention was going to Lad Maki and then Quinton Johnson ended up being the one that got the two touchdowns. Johnston difference maker, Dodson difference maker. So that those are those players. Now definitely that’s going to put some risk into your lineup. So you don’t want to have a lineup that’s just insanely risky. But when you’re planning these contests with a th00and 2,000, what this main contest right here has 98,000 players, you’re not going to be able to just be chalky and just pull down the 300k.That’s why recommend that you do some single entry contests or some contests that have a higher entry fee but fewer, you know, entrance because in these contests with like 98, you know, thousand uh people, even if you win in a chalky situation, you’re going to be splitting that with 100 of your best friends.
Allen vs. Lamar DFS Breakdown:-
At the quarterbacks once again MVP, runner for MVP. We know they’re overall they’re three and three record. So lean slightly towards uh Lamar Jackson only because he’s $200 more uh affordable than uh Allen, but mean the price is so it’s so close.
RBs: Derrick Henry’s Redemption + Value in Cook:-
Derrick Henry is a thou 10,200. Uh Cook is 9,200. Uh think that plus DraftKings saying that Cook has a much tougher matchup. Think uh you can actually get uh some value off Cook, but Definitely think that Henry is the better running back. And everybody’s always worried about, you know, James Cook playing in the same, you know, you know, basically getting vultured by Allen. We can see from last year that it didn’t hurt. Allen didn’t hurt him. 28 fantasy points, 30, 29, 22, 31. So, he had some monster games even with Josh Allen in the lineup. So, just get that narrative out there. So, Z Flowers, Shakir, Coleman, lesser extent Andrews. We you should know by now that the cons of these two quarterbacks, especially Lamar Jackson, is they’re great quarterbacks. They’re going to go through their progressions. They’re going to find the open receiver, but they also are prone to just take off and steal all the fantasy points for themselves. So, DFS, DFS is a marathon.
WRs & TEs: Flowers, Shakir, and the “Vulture QBs”:-
It is not a sprint. So, there are going to be some days where you do the right thing and you put Shakir and Flowers in your lineup and they’re going to have duh games because there’s so many playmakers on these teams and both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are prone to steal the fantasy points. Also like Flowers, but like the 600 in savings. We know that Likely is out.
Top Difference Maker: Charlie Kolar (TE):-
Now, as far as progressions, he’s probably fifth or six option, but at $1600, if he if he gets 3.2, 2. If he gets four fancy points and if he gets a goal line touchdown and you don’t have Colar in your your lineup, that is it. So, he’s definitely my difference maker. My backup difference maker is always Justice Hill. Uh we know that they’re not going to they’re not going to try to run Henry into the ground. So, Justice Hill, you know, he’s definitely liable to get one of those swing passes and go for 40 yards. And also for Cook, a lot of times James Cook last year was only on the field for 50 to 60% of the snaps. So they will put Ray Davis in there and you can have Tai Johnson.
Kickers: Old Men and New Faces:-
So would definitely if had to rank my difference makers, it would be Kolar followed by Justice Hill. But definitely Ray Davis and Tai Johnson are liable to be those difference makers. What else do we have here? The kicker. So, the kicker situation for both teams has changed a lot since we’ve last met. So, you have old man Prader, 41 years old, did well in limited time last year. Not not anything not not very sexy when it comes to Prader. And another problem we have with Buffalo kickers is that Josh Allen and the Buffalo have a very efficient offense. So, a lot of times they go for, you know, fourth and two, fourth and three where other teams might punt. And then you have Loop. We know what happened with our boy Justin Tucker. So, we have a new kicker for the Ravens.
You have a leather, very slippery ball and an oblong shape. So, there can be a fumble, sack, fumble, pick six, all these random things, but wouldn’t be over the field with the kickers or defenses this week just because of the matchup. So, now we got to talk about lineups. What Vegas and most of us believe, a lot of the lineups are going to be 33. Which means three from Buffalo, three from um three from Baltimore, or you’re gonna have four two in one direction. If you can find a lineup that’s five one either direction, it makes sense and that actually hits for you as far as actual in real life game, then you’re going to be feeling real good. But you can’t be crazy.
Defenses: High-Risk, Low Ceiling:-
Your lineup has to make sense. when draft kings when they’re creating these salaries, they aren’t making the salaries to make a lineup that makes sense. They’re not saying if you follow this, you’re gonna know that that you got to that’s where you come in. That’s where your own thought process, that’s where you know listening to or getting advice from guys like myself, that’s where you know you want to do some optimizer, whatever. But your lineup has to make sense. So this first lineup is a 4-2 towards Baltimore.
Final Thought: DFS Lineups Must Make Sense:-
So this allows me if Lamar Jackson wants to take off and actually you know get a a goal line touchdown. Keeping Andrews in there and Colar and then also have the rookie um rookie kicker Loop in there. If you want to have you want to be a little more spicy and have Allen and um and Shakir, but think it’s really think it’s really difficult to fade Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. Obviously, the more lineups you submit, the more you can fade them. But it’s kind of like in golf trying to trying to, you know, fade Scotty Sheffller. If you all do DFS or watch golf, Scotty Sheffller is like the Michael Jordan at this point or the Tiger Woods of this generation of golf. So trying to fade him is kind of silly. So to me, it’s kind of it’s kind of difficult definitely in mass to fade Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. You can just find ways to be creative around him.Debo Samuel as far as those just, you know, jet sweeps and those kind of crazy plays.