What Just Happened: Trump’s Proclamation Targets H-1B Visas:-
Trump has effectively destroyed the H-1B visa program completely. He’s gutted it. A $100,000 fee for an H1B visa application per year. Which means for a three-year visa, which is the duration, it will be $300,000. That’s 88 lakh rupees per year. It makes the entire proposition completely unviable. This is how much US companies will have to pay if they want to hire a foreign worker for an H-1B visa. The US government to give you a perspective currently charges $215 for an application and $780 from the employer who wants to sponsor that application.
Why This Matters: The Cost Becomes Prohibitive:-
Indians dominate this visa category and will be impacted squarely really Indian IT professionals and the tech industry. India stands to lose the most. In fact, people are now arguing that this is worse than the 50% tariffs that Trump put in Indian exports. And of course, it is a massive blow to Indo US relations. So the whole problem between India and the US and how we’re going to navigate it has gotten much much worse. In fact, President Trump has also signed a proclamation called the restriction on entry of certain non-immigrant workers which basically will restrict entry into the United States for individuals as non-immigrants unless their H-1B petitions are accompanied or supplemented by the payment of $100,000. So basically, if you’re out of the if you’re on an H-1B and you’re out of the country right now, they will not let you back in unless this $100,000 has been paid. The US President Donald Trump has signed that proclamation. He’s ordered the Secretary of Homeland Security to restrict decisions on petitions that are not accompanied by this $100,000 payment for H1B speciality occupation workers who are currently outside the United States. Now the entire proclamation is applicable for 1 year for 12 months starting September 21st and it has to be renewed after 1 year but this is where we are right now.Is the US making it harder and more expensive for Indians to work there and what does it mean for India? Let’s quickly take a look to begin with at what the H1B visa is. The H-1B visa is the US’s most important work visa for highly skilled jobs. So software engineers, data scientists, doctors, researchers. It’s a three-year visa that can be renewed for another 3 years.
Who’s Affected: Indian Tech Workers Hit Hardest:-
So that’s a total of 6 years and you have to have a bachelor’s degree to get it. It was meant to fill jobs that American companies were struggling to hire for because there was not enough talent in the country. Last year, 2024, India got 71% of all of the H-1B visas that were handed out and nearly 2.8 8 lakh Indians get those visas every year. Trump has said is $100,000 annual fee which means over that sixyear stint you’re talking about $600,000 that’s 5 cr rupees in visa fees right it makes no sense because normally what companies would do is they would take Indian engineers u tech engineers move them to the US because they cost less than hiring locally. According to Hindustan Times, according to a report from the US Citizen and Immigration Services, the median wage for someone who comes in on an H-1B visa is $97,000, which is less than the fee that they will now be charged. The nber is slightly higher for someone who’s got a renewed visa. It goes up to 100 $120,000. It’s still too close to the fees that would be charged. So effectively if the visa fees become higher than the annual salary, it’s extremely unlikely these applicants will be applications will be made or people will be brought over at all.
What It Means: A Blow to Indo-US Relations and Indian Economy:-
So the likelihood if this stays the way it is of Indians being taken to the US on H1B visas is now zero. The second set of people we should worry about are the people who are already there on existing visas which have already been granted. It seems clear from Trump’s second declaration that they have no intention of keeping them there. So why are they doing this? The Trump administration has said the H1B visas have been abused. They claim outsourcing companies are hiring foreign workers just on lower pay and not because they’re highly skilled or highly valuable. They don’t want that to happen. They want American workers to be hired. Who will be hit hardest in terms of companies? Amazon got the largest nber for this year. 12,000 H1 B workers it has right now.
Trump’s Argent: Protecting American Jobs:-
That will be hit a lot. Microsoft and Meta each have 5,000 a piece. Apple and Google have 4,000 a piece. TCS, Infosys, Vipro, India tech giants depend heavily on the system as well. In fact, the Infosys ADRs have fallen 4%. Vipro’s fallen 2%. This is their global stock.Indians account for 72% of those H-1Bs. So, effectively, Indian talent is going to take a hit. At the same time, remember that gold visa thing we talked about that Trump had actually announced that you can pay your way into a green card. So you pay $1 million which is 8 cr rupees personally or 2 million if the company sponsors you and you get a green card. So what this means effectively that you have to be valued this much because the new rules make the H1 pointless. So either you go via gold card or not at all. Um reaction has been swift within America. There are a lot of congressmen who are saying that this is reckless. It will weaken America’s force workforce. It will weaken American companies. But Trump supporters have argued consistently that this is being done to protect American jobs and wages. So there’s an argent that the tech industry in the US will be hit hard by this. Of course, the Indian tech industry is going to take a massive beating because many portions of you know that business model are getting hurt. What does this mean for Indians? 5.4 million Indians live in the US right now. Those already on H1B visas, renewals will cost employers $100,000 a year.
The Bigger Picture: Uncertainty and Fear Among Indian Workers:-
Companies are going to have to make tough calls. Do they want these workers? Are they worth that cost? should they just hire an American themselves?They will have to find work in India.” All of this will happen. But there’s a counterargent to this. we have to understand the big positions of H-1Bs are currently being you know where are they being utilized and co effectively taught all of us who work in India that you can work from anywhere as long as you have a strong internet connection so is it possible that instead of H-1Bs and going to the US people will work remotely from India and could that be a solution that the IT sector actually looks at that’s something that’s going to become really attractive but the bigger picture here is Trump’s crackdown on immigration and Trump’s crackdown on his relationship ship with India. Remember when he took over as president, the H-1B visa came up and India did a lot of work to smooth out those creases and we were under the impression that the creases have been smoothened out but apparently with Trump you can never call it.
Conclusion: A Tipping Point for Indian Tech and Talent Migration?:-
So now it’s back on the table again and it’s worse than ever. So we’ve not heard from the Indian government or the external affairs ministry but I’m assing that a lot of heads are being put together right now to figure out how they can get on top of this because this will hurt Indian talent, Indian companies, Indian economy and that’s going to be you know that’s going to be a tough one. So the big question is will this push Indian talent to work back home? Will it weaken global innovation? Will it give a philillip to Indian innovation if you know our brightest and smartest decide to stay back in India? All of these things could happen. But there is this one thing you know taco the fact that Trump always chickens out is what a lot of people say about his surprise announcements that he’ll never see it through. He could change his mind. He could roll it back. It’s possible. And until then we’re all going to be scrambling and holding our breath to figure out what that means. But in the meantime, this is not a good sign for what Trump is thinking of Indians. It’s not a good sign of what Trump is thinking of immigration. It’s not a good sign sending it, you know, to the rest of that country as well about Indian workers who work there. It gives the feeling that they’re not wanted.About of a negative sort of push back towards Indian immigration globally because this is not a good sign to come out. So for everyone living in the US right now, if you’re still on an H-1B, you know, you might have to have these conversations to figure out what is really going on. And this will actually In my opinion sends a bad sign as to how the Trump administration views India right now and views Indian workers right now.